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AI 2027 Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be Decade Ahead enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like. Leopold Aschenbrenner, June 2024 It's informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAl, and previous forecasting successes." You can see the future first in San Francisco. Oyer the past vear, the talk of the town has shifted from Sto billion compute dusters to Seoo billion What is this? How did we write it? Why is it valuable? Who are we? chusters to trillion-dollar clusters. Every six months another zero is added to the boardroom plans. Behind the ssenes, therc's a fierse sramble to secare cvery power conuract still available for the rest of the decade. every voltage transformer that can possibly be procured. American big business is gearing up to pour PubLishet Apr11 3ro 2825 I B ror 1 d0 Listen watch trillions of dollars into a long-anseen mobilization of American induserial mighe. By the end of the decade Mid 2025: Stumbling Agents American electricity production will have grown tens of percent; from the shale fields of Pennsylvania to the solar farms of Nevada, hundreds of millions of GPUs will huam Machines of The Techno-Optimist Loving Grace Manifesto How AI Could Transform the World for the Better Marc Andreessen October 2024 I think and talk a lot about the risks of powerful Al. The company I'm SHARE the CEO of., Anthropic. does a lot of research on how to reduce these risks. Because of this, people sometimes draw the conclusion that I'm a pessimist or "doomer'who thinks Al will be mostly bad or dangerous.I don't think that at all In fact, one of my main reasons for focusing on Posted October 16, 2023 risks is that they're the only thing standing between us and what I see

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