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N = 2 Surprise Now, suppose you must decide when to stop and choose between only two slips of paper or two cards. You turn one over, observe a number there and then must judge whether it is larger than the hidden number on the sec- ond. The surprising claim, originating with David Blackwell of the Univer- sity of California, Berkeley, is that you can win at this game more than half the time.'Obviously you can win ex- actly half the time by always stopping with the first number, or always stop- ping with the second, without even peeking. But to win more than half the time, you must find a way to use infor- mation from the first number to decide whether or not to stop. (Readers take comfort: When mathematicians first heard this claim, many of us found it implausible.)
